Bayern Munich vs Mainz 05

Allianz Arena forms the backdrop for a handsomely-looking Bundesliga showdown between Bayern Munich and Mainz 05.

Bayern Munich could reclaim the Meisterschale this weekend if they avenge a 2-1 defeat against Mainz in reverse H2H and Leverkusen fail to beat Augsburg. Vincent Kompany’s men have only suffered two league defeats all season (W22, D6) and seem well-positioned to keep it that way, knowing they’ve won their last seven top-flight home meetings with this opposition. Remarkably, the Bavarians netted an eye-catching 37 goals across those seven victories, including an 8-1 demolition in this corresponding fixture last term. Yet, they only kept two clean sheets in that sequence, while conceding 2+ goals in their four most recent home outings cannot inspire much confidence defensive-wise. Indeed, Bayern squandered the lead twice in that sequence (W1, D1, L2), meaning they’d be naive to take anything for granted here.

On the other hand, visiting Mainz remain firmly in contention for a coveted Champions League finish despite an ongoing five-game winless league run (D3, L2). Bo Henriksen’s side alternated between drawing and losing in that sequence and, as a result of that drop-off, they commenced this round two points adrift of fourth-placed RB Leipzig. Eager to find a way out of their worst league form under the Danish tactician, the 05ers take this trip seeking a first-ever league double over Bayern. The visitors have fared outstandingly as betting outsiders this season, racking up a league-high seven wins as underdogs (D2, L6). Furthermore, they boast a narrowly positive record against the division’s top-five teams in 2024/25 (W3, D2, L2), losing just once on the road!